Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 29.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result
Alfreton Town	Draw	Oxford City
43.13% ( 0.16)	27.34% ( -0.03)	29.52% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 48.17% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.95% (

0.07)

57.05% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.06% (

0.06)

77.94% (

-0.06)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.79% (

0.12)

26.21% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.69% (

0.15)

61.3% (

-0.15)

Oxford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.28% (

-0.05)

34.72% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.55% (

-0.05)

71.45% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Alfreton Town 43.13%

Oxford City 29.52%

Draw 27.34%

Alfreton Town	Draw	Oxford City
1-0 @ 12.18% 2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.16% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.12% Total : 43.13%	1-1 @ 12.89% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.34%	0-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( -0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 29.52%