Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.07%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 29.61% | 22.63% | 47.76% |
| Both teams to score 63.78% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.31% | 36.69% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.15% | 58.85% |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.72% | 24.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.36% | 58.64% |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% | 15.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.11% | 44.89% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.09% 1-0 @ 5.42% 2-0 @ 3.84% 3-1 @ 3.34% 3-2 @ 3.09% 3-0 @ 1.81% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-2 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.75% Total : 29.61% | 1-1 @ 10% 2-2 @ 6.54% 0-0 @ 3.83% 3-3 @ 1.9% Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 9.25% 0-1 @ 7.07% 0-2 @ 6.53% 1-3 @ 5.69% 2-3 @ 4.03% 0-3 @ 4.02% 1-4 @ 2.63% 2-4 @ 1.86% 0-4 @ 1.86% 1-5 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.85% Total : 47.76% |