Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Darlington had a probability of 35.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Darlington win was 1-2 (8.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.