Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Pau had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (7.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.