Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 58.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.53% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%) , while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.