Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 58.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.53% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%) , while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 58.7% | 21.53% | 19.76% |
| Both teams to score 56.17% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.38% | 41.62% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.98% | 64.02% |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.12% | 13.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.72% | 41.27% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.22% | 34.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.49% | 71.51% |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% 1-0 @ 9.53% 2-0 @ 9.41% 3-1 @ 6.55% 3-0 @ 6.2% 3-2 @ 3.46% 4-1 @ 3.23% 4-0 @ 3.06% 4-2 @ 1.71% 5-1 @ 1.28% 5-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.14% Total : 58.7% | 1-1 @ 10.06% 2-2 @ 5.25% 0-0 @ 4.82% 3-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.52% | 1-2 @ 5.32% 0-1 @ 5.1% 0-2 @ 2.69% 1-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.85% 0-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.99% Total : 19.76% |