Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Tel Aviv win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Hapoel Petah Tikva had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Tel Aviv win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Hapoel Petah Tikva win was 0-1 (9.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.