Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.