Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 58.76%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 1-2 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.