Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 79.39%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 6.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.17%) and 1-0 (11.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.67%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (2.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
79.39% ( 0.01) | 14.19% ( -0.01) | 6.42% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 39.09% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.27% ( 0.01) | 41.73% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.87% ( 0.01) | 64.13% ( -0.01) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.54% ( 0.01) | 8.46% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.64% ( 0.01) | 29.36% ( -0.01) |
Ajaccio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
42.7% ( -0.01) | 57.3% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
10.79% ( -0.01) | 89.21% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
2-0 @ 14.78% 3-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.97% 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0) 4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.78% 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.71% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.53% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 3.39% Total : 79.38% | 1-1 @ 6.67% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 14.19% | 0-1 @ 2.7% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 6.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 30 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 73 | 26 | 47 | 69 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 58 |
3 | Brest | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 |
4 | Lille | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 52 |
5 | Nice | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 48 |
6 | Lens | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 46 |
7 | Rennes | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Marseille | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
9 | Lyon | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 41 |
10 | Reims | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 37 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 37 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 32 |
15 | Metz | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
16 | Le HavreLe Havre | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 28 |
17 | Lorient | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 59 | -23 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 22 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |