League One

League One | Gameweek 46

Apr 27, 2024 at 12.30pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 0
Carlisle

Bird (5'), Collins (59')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Neal (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Cambridge 0-1 Derby
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Carlisle 1-3 Wycombe
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.76%) and 3-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Carlisle United
71.23% ( -0.22)	17.95% ( 0.08)	10.82% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 45.9% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.13% (

0.09)

43.87% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.74% (

0.08)

66.26% (

-0.08)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.99% (

-0.03)

11.01% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.69% (

-0.08)

35.31% (

0.08)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.58% (

0.34)

48.42% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.46% (

0.25)

83.54% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Derby County 71.23%

Carlisle United 10.82%

Draw 17.95%

Derby County	Draw	Carlisle United
2-0 @ 12.97% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 11.76% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 3.82% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 71.23%	1-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.67% Total : 17.95%	0-1 @ 3.87% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.45% Total : 10.82%