/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fcarlog.png)
-
Max Bird
5'
-
James Collins
59'
-
Harrison Neal
41'
Derby County vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F04%2Fpaul-warne.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 10.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.76%) and 3-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match.
Result
Both Teams to Score:
Goals
Derby County Goals
Carlisle United Goals
Score analysis
1-0 @ 11.76% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 9.54% ▼ (-0.08)
2-1 @ 9.41% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 6.92% ▲ (+0.02)
4-0 @ 5.26% ▼ (-0.06)
4-1 @ 3.82% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.51% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 2.32% ▼ (-0.03)
5-1 @ 1.68% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.38% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 71.23%
0-0 @ 5.33% ▼ (-0.02)
2-2 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 17.95%
1-2 @ 3.09% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 1.4% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 10.82%