League One

League One | Gameweek 42

Apr 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Fratton Park

Portsmouth
2 - 2
Derby

Kamara (27'), Moxon (77')
Lane (20'), Ogilvie (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Ward (23', 35')
Collins (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions

Last Game: Wycombe 1-3 Portsmouth
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Blackpool
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Portsmouth	Draw	Derby County
34.95% ( -0.26)	25.2% ( 0.07)	39.85% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 56.83% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.23% (

-0.38)

46.76% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.97% (

-0.35)

69.02% (

0.35)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.07% (

-0.32)

25.93% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.06% (

-0.45)

60.93% (

0.45)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.73% (

-0.08)

23.27% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.8% (

-0.11)

57.2% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Portsmouth 34.95%

Derby County 39.85%

Draw 25.19%

Portsmouth	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.37% Total : 34.95%	1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.19%	0-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.21% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.53% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.12% Total : 39.85%