/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fporlog_1.png)
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Louie Sibley
5'
-
Kacper Lopata
5'
-
Dwight Gayle
44'
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Dwight Gayle
44'
-
Louie Sibley
58'
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Funso Ojo
40'
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Funso Ojo
40'
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Gavin Massey
90'+4'
Derby County vs Port Vale - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F04%2Fpaul-warne.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 14.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result
Derby County
65.06%
▼
(-0.01)
Draw
20.31%
Port Vale
14.63%
▲
(+0.01)
Both Teams to Score:
49.5%
▲
(+0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5
54.86%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 2.5
45.14%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 3.5
32.51%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 3.5
67.49%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 4.5
16.44%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 4.5
83.56%
▼
(-0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5
86.91%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 0.5
13.09%
Over 1.5
60.29%
Under 1.5
39.71%
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5
56.96%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
43.04%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 1.5
20.68%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
79.32%
▼
(-0.02)
Score analysis
Derby County
65.05%
Draw
20.31%
Port Vale
14.63%
Derby County
2-0
@
11.64%
▼
(-0.01)
1-0 @ 11.45% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.82%
3-0 @ 7.89% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.66% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 4.01% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 3.38%
3-2 @ 2.81% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.63%
4-2 @ 1.43% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.38%
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 65.05%
1-0 @ 11.45% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.82%
3-0 @ 7.89% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.66% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 4.01% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 3.38%
3-2 @ 2.81% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.63%
4-2 @ 1.43% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.38%
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 65.05%
Draw
1-1
@
9.66%
0-0 @ 5.63% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.14% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 20.31%
0-0 @ 5.63% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.14% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 20.31%
Port Vale
0-1
@
4.75%
1-2 @ 4.07% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.14% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 14.63%
1-2 @ 4.07% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.14% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 14.63%