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League One | Gameweek 13
Feb 27, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Charlton Athletic

Derby
1 - 2
Charlton

Cashin (39')
Bradley (22'), Wildsmith (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)
May (65' pen.), Anderson (80')
Gillesphey (82'), Aneke (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barnsley 2-1 Derby
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Charlton Athletic

Although Derby experienced a disappointing at the weekend, they have won seven of their last eight home games against Charlton, and we think that they will draw inspiration from that record to clinch a narrow victory in Tuesday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 16.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Charlton Athletic win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
63.84% (0.176 0.18) 19.85% (-0.055 -0.05) 16.31% (-0.115 -0.11)
Both teams to score 55.14% (-0.073 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.29% (0.033999999999999 0.03)39.71% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.94% (0.033000000000001 0.03)62.06% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.21% (0.060000000000002 0.06)11.79% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63% (0.122 0.12)37% (-0.117 -0.12)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.52% (-0.121 -0.12)37.48% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.73% (-0.12 -0.12)74.27% (0.126 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 63.84%
    Charlton Athletic 16.31%
    Draw 19.85%
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
2-0 @ 10.1% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 9.45% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.2% (0.037 0.04)
3-1 @ 7.06% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.85% (0.029 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.78% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.47% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.65% (0.016 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.61% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 63.84%
1-1 @ 9.27% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.42% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 19.85%
1-2 @ 4.55% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
0-1 @ 4.34% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.13% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.59% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.49% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 16.31%

How you voted: Derby vs Charlton

Derby County
70.8%
Draw
9.2%
Charlton Athletic
20.0%
65
Head to Head
Feb 3, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 31
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Ramsay (70'), Kanu (82')
Mendez-Laing (31')
Adams (41'), Cashin (51'), Sibley (68'), Vickers (90+1'), Hourihane (90+5')
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-0
Charlton
McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 12
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth422612471363590
2Derby CountyDerby432581072373583
3Bolton WanderersBolton42249978453381
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough412381080503077
5Barnsley4221111075552074
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4220101271531870
7Lincoln CityLincoln4218141061352668
8Blackpool4319101459431667
9Stevenage4318131253421167
10Leyton Orient431711155050062
11Northampton TownNorthampton43178185561-659
12Exeter CityExeter431510183956-1755
13Wigan AthleticWigan431710165754353
14Wycombe WanderersWycombe411313155152-152
15Charlton AthleticCharlton431118146262051
16Bristol Rovers42149194863-1551
17Reading431510186163-249
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury42137223159-2846
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge41129203757-2045
20Burton Albion421010223359-2640
21Port Vale421010223866-2840
22Cheltenham TownCheltenham41108233457-2338
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood42713224268-2634
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4379274075-3530


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