League One

League One | Gameweek 30

Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Bird (60'), Collins (81')
Wilson (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sercombe (50')
Freestone (55'), Long (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Reading 1-0 Derby
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cheltenham Town

All competitions

Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Cheltenham Town
72.25% ( -0.03)	16.93% ( 0.01)	10.82% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 49.5% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.86% (

-0.01)

39.13% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.53% (

-0.01)

61.46% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.5% (

-0.01)

9.5% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.14% (

-0.02)

31.86% (

0.02)

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.69% (

0.02)

45.31% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.82% (

0.02)

81.18% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Derby County 72.24%

Cheltenham Town 10.82%

Draw 16.93%

Derby County	Draw	Cheltenham Town
2-0 @ 11.92% 1-0 @ 10.13% 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0) 4-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.36% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.93% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.59% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.05% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.73% 6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.8% Total : 72.24%	1-1 @ 8.02% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 16.93%	0-1 @ 3.41% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.18% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.35% ( 0) 2-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 10.82%