League One Gameweek 28
Derby
Jan 15, 2024 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion
  • Tom Barkhuizen 29' goal
  • James Collins 49' goal
  • Conor Hourihane 90'+3' goal
  • goal Steve Seddon 54'
  • yellowcard Deji Oshilaja 64'
  • goal Joe Hugill 65'

Derby County vs Burton Albion - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Jan 6, 2024 12.30pm
Fleetwood 1 - 3 Derby
Goals scored
78
Top scorer
James Collins

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last game
Jan 6, 2024 3.00pm
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Wycombe
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Mark Helm

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result

Derby County 70.39% ▼ (-0.01)
Draw 17.65% ▲ (+0.01)
Burton Albion 11.95% ▲ (+0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.86% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 60.62% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 39.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 38.28% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 61.71% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 20.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 79.22% ▲ (+0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 89.99% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 10.01% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 66.95% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 33.05% ▲ (+0.01)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5 56.51% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 43.48% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 20.3% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 79.7% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Derby County 70.38%
Draw 17.65%
Burton Albion 11.95%
Derby County
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 8.85% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 7.37% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 5.09% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 4.24% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.07% ▼ (-0.01)
5-0 @ 2.34% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.77% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.34% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.35% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
Burton Albion
0-1 @ 3.63% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 3.47% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 11.95%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
Aug 12, 2023 3.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
Derby
  • Steve Seddon 2' yellowcard
  • Dino Maamria 3' yellowcard
  • goal James Collins 6'
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Conor Hourihane 66'
  • goal Conor Hourihane 78'
  • goal Conor Washington 84'
  • yellowcard Eiran Cashin 90'+6'
League One Gameweek 44
Derby
Apr 22, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion
  • David McGoldrick 63' goal
League One Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
Dec 10, 2022 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
Derby
  • Victor Adeboyejo 79' goal
  • goal James Collins 23'
Pre-Season Friendlies
Burton Albion
Jul 20, 2019 3.00pm
2
5
HT : 1 3
FT
Derby
  • John Brayford 22' goal
  • Scott Fraser 51' goal
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 16'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 28'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 37'
  • goal Mason Bennett 47'
  • goal Max Bird 93'
Championship
Burton Albion
Apr 14, 2018 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Derby
  • Liam Boyce 24' goal
  • Jake Buxton 39' yellowcard
  • Luke Murphy 44' goal
  • John Brayford 63' yellowcard
  • Lucas Akins 68' goal
  • Hope Akpan 77' yellowcard
  • goal David Nugent 29'
  • yellowcard Tom Huddlestone 49'
Championship
Derby
Dec 2, 2017 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • Johnny Russell 81' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Naylor 14'
  • yellowcard Tom Flanagan 65'

Form Data

Derby 0 - 1 Bradford
Fleetwood 1 - 3 Derby
Derby 2 - 3 Peterborough
Oxford Utd 2 - 3 Derby
Wigan 0 - 1 Derby
Derby 3 - 1 Lincoln
Blackpool 2 - 1 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Wycombe
Bolton 1 - 0 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Shrewsbury
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Blackpool
Charlton 1 - 1 Burton Albion