League One Gameweek 25
Oxford Utd
Dec 29, 2023 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 2 1
FT The Kassam Stadium
Derby
  • Cameron Brannagan 2' goal
  • Cameron Brannagan 13' goal
  • James Beadle 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joe Wildsmith 2'
  • yellowcard Max Bird 24'
  • goal Craig Forsyth 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Tom Barkhuizen 59'
  • yellowcard Tyreece John-Jules 71'
  • goal Liam Thompson 81'
  • goal Eiran Cashin 86'

Oxford United vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford United

All competitions
Last game
Dec 26, 2023 3.00pm
Oxford Utd 2 - 1 Cambridge
Goals scored
83
Top scorer
Mark Harris

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Dec 26, 2023 3.00pm
Wigan 0 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
78
Top scorer
James Collins

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result

Oxford United 35.75% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 27.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Derby County 37.19% ▲ (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.71% ▼ (-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5 45.38% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 54.62% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 24.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 75.96% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 4.5 10.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 89.24% ▲ (+0.02)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5 70.78% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 29.22% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 1.5 34.82% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 65.17% ▲ (+0.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 71.64% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 28.35% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 35.91% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 64.09% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Oxford United 35.75%
Draw 27.05%
Derby County 37.18%
Oxford United
1-0 @ 10.19%
2-1 @ 7.9% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.27% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.24% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.57% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.04% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 35.75%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.84%
0-0 @ 8.29% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.98% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 27.05%
Derby County
0-1 @ 10.44% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 8.1% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.58% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 3.4%
0-3 @ 2.77% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.09% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 37.18%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 3
Derby
Aug 15, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • James Collins 27' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 37' yellowcard
  • Conor Hourihane 42' yellowcard
  • Kane Wilson 68' yellowcard
  • Eiran Cashin 82' yellowcard
  • Martyn Waghorn 87' goal
  • goal Mark Harris 32'
  • yellowcard Sam Long 52'
  • goal Mark Harris 72'
  • yellowcard James Beadle 90'+1'
League One Gameweek 36
Oxford Utd
Mar 11, 2023 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT The Kassam Stadium
Derby
  • Sam Long 14' goal
  • Kyle Joseph 90' goal
  • goal Louie Sibley 23'
  • goal Louie Sibley 40'
  • goal Sam Long 61' (OG)
League One Gameweek 1
Derby
Jul 30, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • Conor Hourihane 47' yellowcard
  • James Collins 55' yellowcard
  • Conor Hourihane 80' goal
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 82' yellowcard
  • Curtis Davies 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Steve Seddon 28'
  • yellowcard Marcus Browne 51'

Form Data

Oxford Utd 2 - 1 Cambridge
Northampton 2 - 1 Oxford Utd
Oxford Utd 3 - 0 Burton Albion
Reading 1 - 1 Oxford Utd
Peterborough 3 - 0 Oxford Utd
Forest Green 0 - 1 Oxford Utd
Wigan 0 - 1 Derby
Derby 3 - 1 Lincoln
Derby 1 - 1 Wycombe
Leyton Orient 0 - 3 Derby
Derby 3 - 0 Fleetwood
Port Vale 0 - 1 Derby