League One

League One | Gameweek 19

Nov 25, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 1
Bristol Rovers

Hunt (66' og.), Mendez-Laing (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Martin (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bristol Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-3 Crewe
Tuesday, November 14 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bristol Rovers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Newport 0-1 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, November 14 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 19.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Bristol Rovers
59.25% ( -0)	21.7% ( -0)	19.05% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 54.36% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.57% (

0.01)

43.43% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.18% (

0.02)

65.82% (

-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.7% (

14.3% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.89% (

0.01)

42.11% (

-0.01)

Bristol Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.43% (

0.02)

36.57% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.64% (

0.02)

73.36% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Derby County 59.25%

Bristol Rovers 19.05%

Draw 21.7%

Derby County	Draw	Bristol Rovers
1-0 @ 10.17% 2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.41% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.12% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.22% 5-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.87% Total : 59.25%	1-1 @ 10.23% 0-0 @ 5.23% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.7%	0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.15% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 19.05%