League One Gameweek 12
Cheltenham
Oct 7, 2023 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Derby
  • Rob Street 39' goal
  • Tom Bradbury 70' yellowcard
  • goal Curtis Nelson 45'+7'

Cheltenham Town vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last game
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Cheltenham 0 - 2 Fleetwood
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Liam Sercombe

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Blackpool 1 - 3 Derby
Goals scored
78
Top scorer
James Collins

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 16.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.

Result

Cheltenham Town 16.47% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 21.83% ▲ (+0.02)
Derby County 61.7% ▼ (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.91% ▲ (+0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5 51.83% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 48.16% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 29.68% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 70.32% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 14.45% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 85.55% ▼ (-0.03)

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5 57.6% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 0.5 42.4% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 1.5 21.22% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 78.78% ▼ (-0.08)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 84.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 15.09% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 56.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 43.62% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Cheltenham Town 16.47%
Draw 21.83%
Derby County 61.69%
Cheltenham Town
1-0 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 4.45% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 2.36% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 1.27% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 1.69%
Total : 16.47%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.38% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.4% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.21% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 21.83%
Derby County
0-1 @ 12.09% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 11.44% ▼ (-0.03)
1-2 @ 9.82% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 7.21% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 6.19% ▼ (-0.01)
0-4 @ 3.41% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 2.93% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.66% ▲ (+0.01)
0-5 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.01)
1-5 @ 1.11% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 61.69%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 11
Derby
Feb 28, 2023 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham
  • David McGoldrick 43' goal
  • Lewis Dobbin 67' goal
League One Gameweek 27
Cheltenham
Jan 14, 2023 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Derby
  • Caleb Taylor 2' goal
  • Alfie May 77' goal
  • goal Conor Hourihane 8'
  • goal Max Bird 11'
  • goal Tom Barkhuizen 55'

Form Data

Cheltenham 0 - 2 Fleetwood
Lincoln 2 - 0 Cheltenham
Cheltenham 0 - 3 Stevenage
Peterborough 3 - 0 Cheltenham
Exeter 1 - 0 Cheltenham
Bristol Rovers 4 - 1 Cheltenham
Blackpool 1 - 3 Derby
Derby 0 - 0 Cambridge
Carlisle 0 - 2 Derby
Derby 2 - 0 Lincoln
Derby 1 - 1 Portsmouth
Bolton 2 - 1 Derby