League One

League One | Gameweek 9

Sep 23, 2023 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
0 - 2
Derby

Lavelle (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Collins (18', 84' pen.)
Cashin (75')

Coverage of the League One clash between Carlisle United and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 Carlisle
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 2-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, September 19 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Derby County
30.88% ( -0.22)	26.57% ( -0.01)	42.56% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 51.09% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.39% (

-0.04)

53.61% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.89% (

-0.04)

75.11% (

0.04)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.07% (

-0.18)

31.93% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.62% (

-0.2)

68.38% (

0.21)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.06% (

0.1)

24.94% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.42% (

0.14)

59.58% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 30.88%

Derby County 42.55%

Draw 26.56%

Carlisle United	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.09% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 30.88%	1-1 @ 12.62% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.56%	0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.55% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.48% Total : 42.55%