EFL Trophy | Group Stage

Sep 19, 2023 at 7pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 0
Lincoln

Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Duffy (53')

Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Derby County and Lincoln City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lincoln City

All competitions

Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 Carlisle
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 20.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Lincoln City
55.39% ( -1.97)	24.24% ( 1.09)	20.37% ( 0.89)

Both teams to score 48.53% (

-1.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.74% (

-3.21)

52.26% (

3.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.04% (

-2.83)

73.96% (

2.84)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.25% (

-1.9)

18.75% (

1.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.86% (

-3.28)

50.14% (

3.28)

Lincoln City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.73% (

-0.9)

40.27% (

0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.11% (

-0.82)

76.9% (

0.83)

Score Analysis

Derby County 55.38%

Lincoln City 20.37%

Draw 24.23%

Derby County	Draw	Lincoln City
1-0 @ 12.63% ( 0.82) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 5.9% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 5.37% ( -0.45) 4-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.31) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.27) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.34) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.19) Other @ 3.1% Total : 55.38%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.48) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.92) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.19) Other @ 0.81% Total : 24.23%	0-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.69) 1-2 @ 5.23% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.29% Total : 20.37%