League One

League One | Gameweek 4

Aug 19, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 0
Fleetwood

Waghorn (23')
Mendez-Laing (30'), Thompson (40'), Waghorn (55')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mayor (39'), Johnston (69'), Quitirna (90+2')

Coverage of the League One clash between Derby County and Fleetwood Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-2 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, August 15 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fleetwood Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 3-1 Fleetwood
Tuesday, August 15 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.81%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 20.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Fleetwood Town
55.81% ( -0.14)	23.5% ( 0.01)	20.68% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 51.2% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.05% (

0.14)

48.95% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.96% (

0.13)

71.04% (

-0.13)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.63% (

17.37% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.22% (

47.77% (

-0)

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.95% (

0.22)

38.04% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.19% (

0.21)

74.81% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Derby County 55.8%

Fleetwood Town 20.68%

Draw 23.5%

Derby County	Draw	Fleetwood Town
1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.5% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.8%	1-1 @ 11.17% 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 6.39% 1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 20.68%