League One Gameweek 44
Derby
Apr 22, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion
  • David McGoldrick 63' goal

Derby County vs Burton Albion - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Exeter 1 - 2 Derby
Goals scored
67
Top scorer
David McGoldrick

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last game
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Bolton
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Victor Adeboyejo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result

Derby County 66.57% ▲ (+0.60)
Draw 19.37% ▼ (-0.32)
Burton Albion 14.06% ▼ (-0.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.13% ▲ (+0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5 57.79% ▲ (+0.81)
Under 2.5 42.21% ▼ (-0.81)
Over 3.5 35.39% ▲ (+0.81)
Under 3.5 64.61% ▼ (-0.80)
Over 4.5 18.56% ▲ (+0.61)
Under 4.5 81.44% ▼ (-0.60)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 88.21% ▲ (+0.41)
Under 0.5 11.78% ▼ (-0.41)
Over 1.5 63.01% ▲ (+0.86)
Under 1.5 36.98% ▼ (-0.85)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5 57.96% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 0.5 42.04% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 1.5 21.53% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 1.5 78.47% ▼ (-0.09)

Score analysis

Derby County 66.56%
Draw 19.37%
Burton Albion 14.06%
Derby County
2-0 @ 11.32% ▼ (-0.05)
1-0 @ 10.59% ▼ (-0.22)
2-1 @ 9.82% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.07% ▲ (+0.10)
3-1 @ 7% ▲ (+0.10)
4-0 @ 4.32% ▲ (+0.12)
4-1 @ 3.74% ▲ (+0.12)
3-2 @ 3.03% ▲ (+0.06)
5-0 @ 1.85% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 1.62% ▲ (+0.06)
5-1 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 66.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.18% ▼ (-0.16)
0-0 @ 4.95% ▼ (-0.19)
2-2 @ 4.25% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 19.37%
Burton Albion
0-1 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.15)
1-2 @ 3.98% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 1.86% ▼ (-0.06)
2-3 @ 1.23% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 14.06%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
Dec 10, 2022 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
Derby
  • Victor Adeboyejo 79' goal
  • goal James Collins 23'
Pre-Season Friendlies
Burton Albion
Jul 20, 2019 3.00pm
2
5
HT : 1 3
FT
Derby
  • John Brayford 22' goal
  • Scott Fraser 51' goal
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 16'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 28'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 37'
  • goal Mason Bennett 47'
  • goal Max Bird 93'
Championship
Burton Albion
Apr 14, 2018 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Derby
  • Liam Boyce 24' goal
  • Jake Buxton 39' yellowcard
  • Luke Murphy 44' goal
  • John Brayford 63' yellowcard
  • Lucas Akins 68' goal
  • Hope Akpan 77' yellowcard
  • goal David Nugent 29'
  • yellowcard Tom Huddlestone 49'
Championship
Derby
Dec 2, 2017 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • Johnny Russell 81' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Naylor 14'
  • yellowcard Tom Flanagan 65'
Championship
Derby
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • Thomas Ince 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tom Naylor 69'
Championship
Burton Albion
Aug 26, 2016 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Jackson Irvine 12' goal
  • Ben Turner 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Craig Bryson 79'

Form Data

Exeter 1 - 2 Derby
Bristol Rovers 1 - 1 Derby
Derby 1 - 1 MK Dons
Forest Green 0 - 2 Derby
Derby 0 - 2 Ipswich
Peterborough 2 - 0 Derby
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Bolton
Burton Albion 3 - 2 Sheff Weds
Charlton 3 - 2 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Barnsley
Cheltenham 0 - 0 Burton Albion
Port Vale 2 - 3 Burton Albion