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Championship header 2

League One

Derby logo
League One | Gameweek 44
Apr 22, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
1 - 0
Burton Albion

McGoldrick (63' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 1-2 Derby
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Burton Albion 1-1 Bolton
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
66.57% (0.598 0.6)19.37% (-0.313 -0.31)14.06% (-0.28 -0.28)
Both teams to score 51.13% (0.32100000000001 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.79% (0.808 0.81)42.21% (-0.802 -0.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.39% (0.80399999999999 0.8)64.61% (-0.798 -0.8)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.21% (0.40499999999999 0.4)11.78% (-0.4 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.01% (0.852 0.85)36.98% (-0.847 -0.85)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.96% (0.1 0.1)42.04% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.53% (0.087 0.09)78.47% (-0.082000000000008 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 66.56%
    Burton Albion 14.06%
    Draw 19.37%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.32% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
1-0 @ 10.59% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 9.82% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.07% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
3-1 @ 7% (0.098000000000001 0.1)
4-0 @ 4.32% (0.115 0.12)
4-1 @ 3.74% (0.11 0.11)
3-2 @ 3.03% (0.051 0.05)
5-0 @ 1.85% (0.078 0.08)
4-2 @ 1.62% (0.052 0.05)
5-1 @ 1.6% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 66.56%
1-1 @ 9.18% (-0.159 -0.16)
0-0 @ 4.95% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-2 @ 4.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 19.37%
0-1 @ 4.29% (-0.144 -0.14)
1-2 @ 3.98% (-0.057999999999999 -0.06)
0-2 @ 1.86% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.23% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.15% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 14.06%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
80.0%
Draw
20.0%
Burton Albion
0.0%
5
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
Roberts (46')
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
Russell (81')

Naylor (14'), Flanagan (65')
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
Derby
0-0
Burton Albion

Ince (85')

Naylor (69')