League One

League One | Gameweek 40

Apr 7, 2023 at 3pm UK

The New Lawn

Forest Green
0 - 2
Derby

FT(HT: 0-1)

Collins (2' pen.), McGoldrick (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Forest Green Rovers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Forest Green Rovers

All competitions

Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Forest Green
Saturday, April 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 0-2 Ipswich
Saturday, April 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 17.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Derby County
17.94% ( 0.02)	22.8% ( 0.01)	59.25% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 48.82% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.2% (

-0)

49.79% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.2% (

-0)

71.8% (

Forest Green Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.43% (

0.01)

41.56% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.94% (

0.01)

78.05% (

-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.54% (

-0.01)

16.46% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.84% (

-0.02)

46.15% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Forest Green Rovers 17.94%

Derby County 59.25%

Draw 22.8%

Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.01% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.76% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.64% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.94%	1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.8%	0-1 @ 12.34% 0-2 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.88% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.02% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.65% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.58% 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.09% ( -0) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 59.25%