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Championship header 2

League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 29
Mar 7, 2023 at 8pm UK
Home Park
Derby logo

Plymouth
2 - 1
Derby

Wright (59'), Hardie (70' pen.)
Wilson (19'), Matete (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mendez-Laing (17')
Knight (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Charlton
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Derby County

 Plymouth bounced back from a humiliating defeat at Peterborough by beating Charlton on Saturday, and they will realise three points against Derby in this one would go in a long way in securing their position in the top two. The Rams need to find some consistency if they are to challenge the likes of the Pilgrims and Ipswich for a top-two berth, but we see Warne's men narrowly losing out on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
44.94% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02) 25.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 29.6% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.93% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.36% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)49.64% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.34% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)71.66% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.94% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)22.06% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)55.4% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.19% (0.00099999999999056 0)30.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.92% (0.0019999999999953 0)67.08% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 44.94%
    Derby County 29.6%
    Draw 25.46%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 10.27% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.14% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 7.76% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 3.91% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.74% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.48% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.02% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 44.94%
1-1 @ 12.09%
0-0 @ 6.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.46%
0-1 @ 8% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.12% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 4.71% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.8% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.11%
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 29.6%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Derby

Plymouth Argyle
76.2%
Draw
9.5%
Derby County
14.3%
63
Head to Head
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Derby
2-3
Plymouth
Collins (26'), Mendez-Laing (38')
McGoldrick (57')
Whittaker (56'), Cosgrove (77', 90')
Mumba (34')
Jan 26, 2010 3pm
Plymouth
1-0
Derby
Mackie (82')
Fallon (29'), Sawyer (45')

McEveley (14'), Pearson (38'), Hunt (45'), Savage (78'), Buxton (81')
Aug 22, 2009 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Buxton (40'), Addison (90')
Addison (76')
Judge (17' pen.)
Fletcher (90')
Feb 7, 2009 3pm
Plymouth
0-3
Derby
Hulse (46', 52'), Teale (43')
Oct 18, 2008 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Green (52'), Hulse (45')
Gallagher (8')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth452713576413594
2Derby CountyDerby452781076373989
3Bolton WanderersBolton452511983483586
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough452581286582883
5Barnsley4521121281631875
6Lincoln CityLincoln4520141165382774
7Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4521111377552274
8Blackpool4521101463451873
9Stevenage4518141355451068
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe451614155955462
11Leyton Orient451711175054-462
12Exeter CityExeter451710184559-1461
13Wigan AthleticWigan451910166156559
14Northampton TownNorthampton45178205665-959
15Bristol Rovers45169205266-1457
16Charlton AthleticCharlton451120146464053
17Reading451511196568-350
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury45139233464-3048
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge451211223961-2247
20Burton Albion451210233964-2546
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham45128254063-2344
RFleetwood TownFleetwood45913234672-2640
RPort Vale451010254174-3340
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4579294179-3830
> League One Full Table


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