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Championship header 2

League One

Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 43
Apr 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Derby logo

Exeter
1 - 2
Derby

Sparkes (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)
McGoldrick (52', 76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 0-1 Plymouth
Saturday, April 15 at 12pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Derby
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
28.46% (0.056999999999999 0.06)26.29% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)45.24% (-0.053999999999995 -0.05)
Both teams to score 50.65% (0.053000000000004 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.42% (0.051000000000002 0.05)53.57% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.92% (0.043000000000003 0.04)75.08% (-0.045999999999992 -0.05)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.3% (0.070999999999998 0.07)33.69% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.65% (0.076999999999998 0.08)70.34% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.39% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)23.6% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)57.68% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 28.47%
    Derby County 45.24%
    Draw 26.29%
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 8.65% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-1 @ 6.8% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.71% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.46% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.78% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.71% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 28.47%
1-1 @ 12.49%
0-0 @ 7.95% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.91% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 26.29%
0-1 @ 11.48% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.02% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 8.29% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.34% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-3 @ 3.99% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.36% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.57% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.44% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 45.24%

How you voted: Exeter vs Derby

Exeter City
43.8%
Draw
18.8%
Derby County
37.5%
16
Head to Head
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
Derby
0-0
Exeter

Smith (17')