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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
Result | ||
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
28.46% ( 0.06) | 26.29% ( -0.01) | 45.24% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 50.65% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.42% ( 0.05) | 53.57% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.92% ( 0.04) | 75.08% ( -0.05) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.3% ( 0.07) | 33.69% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.65% ( 0.08) | 70.34% ( -0.08) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.39% ( -0) | 23.6% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.31% ( -0) | 57.68% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 28.47% | 1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.29% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.02% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.29% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 45.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |