Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 52.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 22.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.