League One

League One | Gameweek 41

Apr 10, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 1
MK Dons

McGoldrick (17')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lawrence (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Forest Green 0-2 Derby
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

MK Dons

All competitions

Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Portsmouth
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 16.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	MK Dons
62.81% ( -0.02)	21.05% ( 0)	16.13% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 50.64% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.53% (

0.03)

45.46% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.2% (

0.03)

67.8% (

-0.02)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.14% (

13.86%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.75% (

0.01)

41.25% (

MK Dons Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.79% (

0.05)

41.21% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.26% (

0.04)

77.74% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Derby County 62.8%

MK Dons 16.13%

Draw 21.05%

Derby County	Draw	MK Dons
1-0 @ 11.28% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.63% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.76% Total : 62.8%	1-1 @ 10% 0-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0) Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.05%	0-1 @ 5.06% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.31% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0) Other @ 1.79% Total : 16.13%