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Championship header 2

League One

MK Dons
League One | Gameweek 18
Nov 12, 2022 at 3pm UK
Stadium mk
Derby logo

MK Dons
1 - 3
Derby

Barry (41')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Roberts (43'), Collins (53'), Mendez-Laing (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between MK Dons and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

MK Dons

All competitions
League One
Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Morecambe
Tuesday, November 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Liverpool 0-0 Derby (2-2 pen.)
Wednesday, November 9 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
MK DonsDrawDerby County
42.32% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)26.89% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)30.78% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
Both teams to score 50.06% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.09% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)54.91% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.8% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)76.2% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
MK Dons Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.35% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)25.65% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.45% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)60.55% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.33%32.67% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.78% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)69.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    MK Dons 42.32%
    Derby County 30.78%
    Draw 26.89%
MK DonsDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.4% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
2-0 @ 7.76% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.94% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.52% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.2% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.34% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.2% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 42.32%
1-1 @ 12.75%
0-0 @ 8.38% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 26.89%
0-1 @ 9.38% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.14% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 5.24% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.66% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.96% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.81% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 30.78%

How you voted: MK Dons vs Derby

MK Dons
11.1%
Draw
22.2%
Derby County
66.7%
9
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2016 3pm
Derby
0-1
MK Dons

Johnson (39'), Hendrick (72')
Forster-Caskey (82')
Maynard (45'), Carruthers (46')
Sep 26, 2015 12.30pm
MK Dons
1-3
Derby
> Match Report
Mar 4, 2000 3pm
Derby
4-0
MK Dons
Kinkladze (65'), Christie (71'), Burton (89'), Sturridge (90')
Sep 11, 1999 3pm
MK Dons
2-2
Derby
Euell (63'), Hartson (62')
Carbonari (14'), Johnson (81')
Jan 9, 1999 3pm
MK Dons
2-1
Derby
Roberts (83'), Euell (8')
Wanchope (76')