Championship
Dec 26, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Christoph Klarer 49' yellowcard
  • Jack Robinson 64' goal
  • Jay Stansfield 71' yellowcard
  • Paik Seung-ho 74' yellowcard
  • Christoph Klarer 90'+2' redcard
  • goal Patrick Agyemang 27'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 29'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 39'
  • yellowcard Sondre Langas 71'

Birmingham City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions
Last game
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
Sheff Utd 3 - 0 Birmingham
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Marvin Ducksch

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
Derby 1 - 1 Portsmouth
Goals scored
55
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.76% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 13.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%) , while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result

Birmingham City 65.91% (-0.34)
Draw 20.76% (+0.27)
Derby County 13.33% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.76% (-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5 50.28% (-0.89)
Under 2.5 49.72% (+0.89)
Over 3.5 28.27% (-0.80)
Under 3.5 71.73% (+0.80)
Over 4.5 13.5% (-0.54)
Under 4.5 86.5% (+0.54)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5 85.74% (-0.38)
Under 0.5 14.26% (+0.39)
Over 1.5 57.96% (-0.75)
Under 1.5 42.04% (+0.76)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 52.2% (-0.42)
Under 0.5 47.8% (+0.43)
Over 1.5 16.92% (-0.32)
Under 1.5 83.08% (+0.32)

Score analysis

Birmingham City 65.9%
Draw 20.76%
Derby County 13.33%
Birmingham City
1-0 @ 13.27% (+0.29)
2-0 @ 12.92% (+0.10)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.04)
3-0 @ 8.39% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 6.2% (-0.11)
4-0 @ 4.09% (-0.09)
4-1 @ 3.02% (-0.10)
3-2 @ 2.29% (-0.07)
5-0 @ 1.59% (-0.06)
5-1 @ 1.18% (-0.06)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.06)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 65.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.8% (+0.11)
0-0 @ 6.82% (+0.25)
2-2 @ 3.52% (-0.06)
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 20.76%
Derby County
0-1 @ 5.03% (+0.13)
1-2 @ 3.62% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 1.86% (+0.03)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 13.33%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 29
Jan 30, 2022 1.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Luke Plange 87' goal
  • Krystian Bielik 90'+5' goal
  • goal Lyle Taylor 7'
  • goal Scott Hogan 56'
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 62'
  • yellowcard Neil Etheridge 63'
  • yellowcard Gary Gardner 70'
  • yellowcard Jordan James 89'
Championship Gameweek 6
Sep 10, 2021 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Scott Hogan 31' goal
  • Ivan Sunjic 57' yellowcard
  • Marc Roberts 76' yellowcard
  • Jeremy Bela 81' goal
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 24'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 76'
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 76'
Championship Gameweek 44
Apr 24, 2021 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 36' goal
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 62'
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 84'
Championship Gameweek 22
Dec 29, 2020 5.30pm
0
4
HT : 0 3
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
  • goal Krystian Bielik 15'
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 17'
  • goal Colin Kazim-Richards 26'
  • yellowcard Louie Sibley 67'
  • goal Jason Knight 77'
Championship Gameweek 46
Jul 22, 2020 7.30pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
  • Ivan Sunjic 56' goal
  • 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 6'
  • goal Morgan Whittaker 87'
  • goal Louie Sibley 90'+1'
Championship Gameweek 9
Sep 28, 2019 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Chris Martin 2' goal
  • Duane Holmes 44' yellowcard
  • Krystian Bielik 45' yellowcard
  • Martyn Waghorn 50' goal
  • Jamie Paterson 74' goal
  • Scott Malone 92' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alvaro 22'
  • goal Gary Gardner 56'
  • goal Ivan Sunjic 59'