Championship

Championship | Gameweek 23

Dec 26, 2025 at 12.30pm UK

Birmingham Birmingham City
vs.
Derby Derby County

Coverage of the Championship clash between Birmingham City and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions

Last Game: Sheff Utd 3-0 Birmingham
Saturday, December 20 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, December 20 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

" alt="" width="39" height="39" class="vanilla-lazy" />

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Birmingham City win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw has a probability of 20.76% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 13.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.8%) , while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (5.03%).

Result
Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
65.91% ( -0.34)	20.76% ( 0.26)	13.33% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 44.76% (

-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.28% (

-0.88)

49.72% (

0.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.27% (

-0.8)

71.73% (

0.8)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.74% (

-0.38)

14.26% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.96% (

-0.75)

42.04% (

0.75)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.2% (

-0.42)

47.8% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.92% (

-0.31)

83.08% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Birmingham City 65.9%

Derby County 13.33%

Draw 20.76%

Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.27% ( 0.29) 2-0 @ 12.92% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 8.39% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.2% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.31% Total : 65.9%	1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.62% Total : 20.76%	0-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.82% Total : 13.33%