Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 0-1 (9.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.