Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.34% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%) , while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.