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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Millwall |
| 35.88% | 27.63% | 36.49% |
| Both teams to score 48.93% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.15% | 56.85% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.23% | 77.78% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.76% | 30.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% | 66.41% |
| Millwall Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.14% | 29.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.05% | 65.95% |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Millwall |
| 1-0 @ 10.8% 2-1 @ 7.81% 2-0 @ 6.46% 3-1 @ 3.11% 3-0 @ 2.58% 3-2 @ 1.88% 4-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.32% Total : 35.88% | 1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.03% 2-2 @ 4.72% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.63% | 0-1 @ 10.91% 1-2 @ 7.89% 0-2 @ 6.6% 1-3 @ 3.18% 0-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 1.9% 1-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.4% Total : 36.49% |