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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Millwall |
43.42% | 27.66% | 28.92% |
Both teams to score 46.95% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.55% | 58.45% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.95% | 79.04% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.29% | 26.7% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.04% | 61.96% |
Millwall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.05% | 35.94% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.28% | 72.72% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Millwall |
1-0 @ 12.67% 2-1 @ 8.56% 2-0 @ 8.37% 3-1 @ 3.77% 3-0 @ 3.68% 3-2 @ 1.93% 4-1 @ 1.24% 4-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 1.98% Total : 43.42% | 1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 9.6% 2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.65% | 0-1 @ 9.82% 1-2 @ 6.64% 0-2 @ 5.03% 1-3 @ 2.26% 0-3 @ 1.71% 2-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 1.96% Total : 28.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 44 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 80 | 37 | 43 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
4 | Southampton | 44 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 85 | 61 | 24 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 77 | 61 | 16 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 43 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 62 | 54 | 8 | 66 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 42 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 66 | 52 | 14 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 60 | 4 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 62 |
12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 59 |
13 | Sunderland | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 62 | -5 | 56 |
15 | Watford | 44 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 53 |
16 | Millwall | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 53 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 50 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 50 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 49 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 48 |
21 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 47 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 44 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 44 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 24 |
> Championship Full Table |