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Championship | Gameweek 32
Feb 12, 2022 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Derby logo

Middlesbrough
4 - 1
Derby

Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County

While Derby are on a high, facing Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium represents one of the toughest tasks in the division. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
56.38%25.03%18.59%
Both teams to score 43.7%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.75%57.26%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.9%78.1%
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.7%20.3%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.33%52.67%
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.82%45.18%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.93%81.08%
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 56.37%
    Derby County 18.59%
    Draw 25.03%
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 14.62%
2-0 @ 11.65%
2-1 @ 9.26%
3-0 @ 6.2%
3-1 @ 4.92%
4-0 @ 2.47%
4-1 @ 1.96%
3-2 @ 1.96%
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 56.37%
1-1 @ 11.62%
0-0 @ 9.17%
2-2 @ 3.68%
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 25.03%
0-1 @ 7.29%
1-2 @ 4.62%
0-2 @ 2.9%
1-3 @ 1.22%
2-3 @ 0.98%
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 18.59%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Derby

Middlesbrough
58.1%
Draw
18.6%
Derby County
23.3%
43
Head to Head
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
0-0
Middlesbrough
Jagielka (66'), Byrne (90+1')
Peltier (30'), Tavernier (43'), Bola (54'), Jones (85')
Feb 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 29
Derby
2-1
Middlesbrough
Gregory (15'), Kazim-Richards (32')
Jozwiak (35'), Knight (90+4')
Kebano (38')
Dijksteel (62')
Nov 25, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
3-0
Derby
Assombalonga (33'), Clarke (71' og.), Johnson (83')

Jozwiak (9'), Lawrence (49'), Byrne (53'), Buchanan (65')
Jan 11, 2020 3pm
Nov 2, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 15
Derby
2-0
Middlesbrough
Lawrence (22', 84')

McNair (15')
Saville (32')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds38257670284282
2Leicester CityLeicester37264774334182
3Ipswich TownIpswich38249580493181
4Southampton36227773472673
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381991059362366
6Norwich CityNorwich381871369541561
7Hull City371610115346758
8Coventry CityCoventry3715121059431657
9Preston North EndPreston37168134954-556
10Middlesbrough38166165352154
11Cardiff CityCardiff38165174351-853
12Sunderland38146184845348
13Watford381212145351248
14Bristol City38138174245-347
15Swansea CitySwansea381210164858-1046
16Millwall381110173650-1443
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn38119185164-1342
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth381011175462-841
19Stoke CityStoke38118193553-1841
20Queens Park RangersQPR381010183650-1440
21Birmingham CityBirmingham38109194259-1739
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield38815154261-1939
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38115223061-3138
24Rotherham UnitedRotherham38311243077-4720


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