Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield United win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.