Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 35.35%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 34.68% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.13%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 1-0 (12.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.