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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 54.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Bournemouth |
20.38% | 24.99% | 54.63% |
Both teams to score 46.44% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.95% | 55.05% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.69% | 76.31% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.14% | 41.86% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.69% | 78.31% |
Bournemouth Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.87% | 20.13% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.61% | 52.4% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Bournemouth |
1-0 @ 7.34% 2-1 @ 5.12% 2-0 @ 3.2% 3-1 @ 1.49% 3-2 @ 1.19% 3-0 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.12% Total : 20.39% | 1-1 @ 11.76% 0-0 @ 8.43% 2-2 @ 4.11% Other @ 0.7% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 13.5% 0-2 @ 10.82% 1-2 @ 9.43% 0-3 @ 5.78% 1-3 @ 5.04% 0-4 @ 2.32% 2-3 @ 2.19% 1-4 @ 2.02% Other @ 3.51% Total : 54.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
2 | Leicester CityLeicester | 42 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 79 | 38 | 41 | 88 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 43 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 87 |
4 | Southampton | 42 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 84 | 54 | 30 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 66 | 42 | 24 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 43 | 21 | 8 | 14 | 76 | 60 | 16 | 71 |
7 | Hull City | 42 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 62 | 54 | 8 | 65 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 42 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 66 | 52 | 14 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 43 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 43 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 56 | 60 | -4 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 43 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 59 |
12 | Bristol City | 43 | 16 | 10 | 17 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 58 |
13 | Sunderland | 43 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 43 | 14 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 62 | -9 | 53 |
15 | Watford | 43 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 52 |
16 | Millwall | 43 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 50 |
17 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 43 | 13 | 10 | 20 | 57 | 71 | -14 | 49 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 43 | 12 | 12 | 19 | 58 | 66 | -8 | 48 |
19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 43 | 12 | 11 | 20 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 47 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 43 | 12 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 47 |
21 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 43 | 12 | 9 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 45 |
22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 43 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 44 |
23 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 43 | 12 | 8 | 23 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 43 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 23 |
> Championship Full Table |