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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hull City win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hull City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.77%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Hull City |
| 33.29% | 28.78% | 37.92% |
| Both teams to score 45.32% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.86% | 81.14% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.82% | 34.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.13% | 70.87% |
| Hull City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.85% | 31.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.51% | 67.48% |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Hull City |
| 1-0 @ 11.43% 2-1 @ 7.16% 2-0 @ 6.14% 3-1 @ 2.56% 3-0 @ 2.2% 3-2 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.32% Total : 33.3% | 1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 10.64% 2-2 @ 4.17% Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.77% | 0-1 @ 12.41% 1-2 @ 7.77% 0-2 @ 7.24% 1-3 @ 3.02% 0-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 1.62% Other @ 3.03% Total : 37.92% |