Jan 11, 2026 12.00pm

1

1

HT : 1 0

LIVE Pride Park Stadium

Ben Brereton Diaz 35'
Ebou Adams 46'

Joel Piroe 33'
James Justin 46'
Willy Gnonto 55'

Derby County vs Leeds United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Derby vs Leeds - prediction, team news, lineups

Preview: Derby vs Leeds - prediction, team news, lineups

Football | 09 Jan 2026 18:13

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

D
W
L
D
D
W

Leeds United

All competitions

L
D
D
D
W
D

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result

Derby County 32.67%

Draw 26.74%

Leeds United 40.58%

Both Teams to Score:

50.03%

Goals

Over 1.5 70.82%

Under 1.5 29.18%

Over 2.5 45.55%

Under 2.5 54.45%

Over 3.5 24.51%

Under 3.5 75.49%

Over 4.5 13.12%

Under 4.5 86.88%

First Half Winner

Derby County 26.14%

Draw 43.65%

Leeds United 30.2%

Team To Score First

Derby County 42.51%

No Goal 8.25%

Leeds United 49.24%

Corners

Over 8 53.56%

Equal 8 11.64%

Under 8 34.8%

Over 9 42.09%

Equal 9 11.48%

Under 9 46.44%

Over 10.5 31.68%

Under 10.5 68.32%

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 30.58%

Under 1.5 69.42%

Over 2.5 10.95%

Under 2.5 89.05%

Over 3.5 3.15%

Under 3.5 96.85%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5 71.16%

Under 0.5 28.84%

Over 1.5 37.17%

Under 1.5 62.83%

Over 2.5 15.16%

Under 2.5 84.84%

Over 3.5 5.05%

Under 3.5 94.95%

Score analysis

Derby County 32.67%

Draw 26.73%

Leeds United 40.57%

Derby County

1-0 @ 9.96%

2-1 @ 7.35%

2-0 @ 5.34%

3-1 @ 2.85%

3-0 @ 2.19%

3-2 @ 1.91%

Other @ 3.07%

Total : 32.67%

Draw

1-1 @ 12.85%

0-0 @ 8.25%

2-2 @ 4.7%

Other @ 0.08%

Total : 26.73%

Leeds United

0-1 @ 10.94%

1-2 @ 8.3%

0-2 @ 7.1%

1-3 @ 3.82%

0-3 @ 3.2%

2-3 @ 2.24%

Other @ 4.97%

Total : 40.57%

Head to Head

Dec 29, 2024 5.45pm

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT Pride Park Stadium

Marcus Harness 32'

Ethan Ampadu 69'
Brenden Aaronson 79'

Dec 7, 2024 12.30pm

2

0

HT : 2 0

FT Elland Road

Joe Rodon 39'
Maximilian Wober 44'

Kayden Jackson 15'

Jul 19, 2020 2.00pm

1

3

HT : 0 0

FT Pride Park Stadium

Louie Sibley 43'
Chris Martin 54'

Pablo Hernandez 56'
Jamie Shackleton 75'
Matt Clarke 84' (OG)

Sep 21, 2019 12.30pm

1

1

HT : 1 0

FT

Max Lowe 20'

Florian Jozefzoon 45'
Duane Holmes 65'
Chris Martin 80'
Tom Huddlestone 87'
Chris Martin 91'

May 15, 2019 7.45pm

2

4

HT : 1 1

FT

Pablo Hernandez 20'
Stuart Dallas 24'
Kalvin Phillips 27'
Patrick Bamford 31'
Liam Cooper 57'
Stuart Dallas 62'
Gaetano Berardi 69'
Gaetano Berardi 78'

Fikayo Tomori 5'
Scott Malone 20'
Tom Lawrence 20'
Jack Marriott 45'
Mason Mount 46'
Harry Wilson 58'
Mason Mount 65'
Jack Marriott 85'
Scott Malone 91'

May 11, 2019 5.15pm

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT

Tom Lawrence 55'
Richard Keogh 67'
Duane Holmes 68'
Tom Huddlestone 89'

Kemar Roofe 55'
Gaetano Berardi 63'
Liam Cooper 65'
Mateusz Klich 87'

Form Data

Derby 0 - 0 Wrexham

Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough

Leicester 2 - 1 Derby

Birmingham 1 - 1 Derby

Derby 1 - 1 Portsmouth

Sheff Weds 0 - 3 Derby

Newcastle 4 - 3 Leeds

Leeds 0 - 0 Man Utd

Liverpool 0 - 0 Leeds

Sunderland 1 - 1 Leeds

Leeds 4 - 1 Crystal Palace

Brentford 1 - 1 Leeds