Championship

Championship | Gameweek 25

Jan 1, 2026 at 3pm UK

Derby Derby County
vs.
Middlesbrough

Coverage of the Championship clash between Derby County and Middlesbrough.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Leicester 2-1 Derby
Monday, December 29 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

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Middlesbrough

All competitions

Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-1 Hull City
Monday, December 29 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.54%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 30.35% and a draw has a probability of 26.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (8.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.42%).

Result
Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
30.35% ( 0.35)	26.11% ( 0.07)	43.54% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 52.26% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.01% (

-0.13)

51.99% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.27% (

-0.11)

73.73% (

0.11)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.53% (

0.19)

31.48% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.14% (

0.22)

67.86% (

-0.22)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.27% (

-0.26)

23.74% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.13% (

-0.37)

57.88% (

0.37)

Score Analysis

Derby County 30.35%

Middlesbrough 43.53%

Draw 26.11%

Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.86% Total : 30.35%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.16% 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.11%	0-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.81% Total : 43.53%