Home > Football > League One
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
49.79% ( -0) | 23.51% ( 0.01) | 26.7% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 58.31% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.09% ( -0.05) | 42.91% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.69% ( -0.05) | 65.31% ( 0.05) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.64% ( -0.02) | 17.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.25% ( -0.03) | 47.75% ( 0.03) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.55% ( -0.03) | 29.45% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.55% ( -0.04) | 65.45% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
2-1 @ 9.58% 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.42% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2% 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 3.89% Total : 49.79% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.5% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 3.28% Total : 26.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |