Mansfield Town
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Oct 4, 2022 at 7pm UK
One Call Stadium
Derby logo

Mansfield
1 - 1
Derby

Maris (45+3')
FT
(aet)
Dobbin (29')
Mansfield win 6-5 on penalties
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Mansfield Town and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mansfield Town

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Mansfield 2-2 Hartlepool
Friday, September 30 at 7.45pm in League Two

Derby County

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Cambridge 0-2 Derby
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%).

Result
Mansfield TownDrawDerby County
45.44% (-1.444 -1.44)26.07% (0.563 0.56)28.49% (0.877 0.88)
Both teams to score 51.35% (-1.141 -1.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.32% (-1.77 -1.77)52.68% (1.766 1.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.67% (-1.535 -1.54)74.32% (1.532 1.53)
Mansfield Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.87% (-1.409 -1.41)23.13% (1.405 1.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.01% (-2.104 -2.1)56.99% (2.1 2.1)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.79% (-0.259 -0.26)33.21% (0.254 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.18% (-0.283 -0.28)69.81% (0.279 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Mansfield Town 45.43%
    Derby County 28.49%
    Draw 26.07%
Mansfield TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.24% (0.32 0.32)
2-1 @ 9.08% (-0.188 -0.19)
2-0 @ 8.23% (-0.112 -0.11)
3-1 @ 4.43% (-0.286 -0.29)
3-0 @ 4.02% (-0.229 -0.23)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.175 -0.18)
4-1 @ 1.62% (-0.179 -0.18)
4-0 @ 1.47% (-0.15 -0.15)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 45.43%
1-1 @ 12.39% (0.26 0.26)
0-0 @ 7.68% (0.522 0.52)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.139 -0.14)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.07%
0-1 @ 8.47% (0.521 0.52)
1-2 @ 6.83% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 4.67% (0.256 0.26)
1-3 @ 2.51% (0.019 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.72% (0.083 0.08)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 28.49%

Head to Head
Aug 9, 2022 7.45pm
Mansfield
1-2
Derby
Hawkins (56')
Hewitt (10'), O'Toole (44')
Bowery (80')
Hewitt (30' og.), Barkhuizen (69')
Wildsmith (51'), Oduroh (90')
Jul 18, 2018 7.30pm
Mansfield
3-1
Derby
Graham (65'), Angol (77'), Hamilton (80')
Bennett (69')
rhs 2.0


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