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Championship header 2

League One

Derby logo
League One | Gameweek 17
Oct 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Bristol Rovers

Derby
4 - 2
Bristol Rovers

McGoldrick (5', 24', 40'), Collins (12')
FT(HT: 4-2)
Thomas (35'), Evans (45+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bristol Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Exeter
Tuesday, October 25 at 7.45pm in League One

Bristol Rovers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Sheff Weds 1-1 Bristol Rovers
Wednesday, October 26 at 8pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.98%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 20.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 0-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBristol Rovers
57.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)21.98% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)20.04% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Both teams to score 55.1% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.74% (0.00099999999999767 0)43.26% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.34% (0.0010000000000048 0)65.65% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.35% (0.0010000000000048 0)14.64% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.22% (0.0039999999999978 0)42.77% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Bristol Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.56% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)35.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.79% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)72.2% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 57.98%
    Bristol Rovers 20.04%
    Draw 21.98%
Derby CountyDrawBristol Rovers
1-0 @ 9.97%
2-1 @ 9.94%
2-0 @ 9.58% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 6.36%
3-0 @ 6.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 3.3%
4-1 @ 3.06% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.95% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.59%
5-1 @ 1.17%
5-0 @ 1.13%
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 57.98%
1-1 @ 10.34%
0-0 @ 5.19%
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.14%
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.98%
0-1 @ 5.38% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-2 @ 5.36%
0-2 @ 2.79%
1-3 @ 1.85% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.78% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 20.04%

How you voted: Derby vs Bristol Rovers

Derby County
70.0%
Draw
10.0%
Bristol Rovers
20.0%
10