EFL Trophy | Group Stage

Sep 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Wham Stadium

Accrington
1 - 0
Carlisle

Whelan (86' og.)
Hills (36'), Coyle (52'), Martin (79'), Longelo-Mbule (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mellish (20'), Back (39'), Ablade (54'), Robinson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Accrington Stanley and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Accrington Stanley

All competitions

Last Game: Notts County 3-1 Accrington
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Carlisle 2-0 Shrewsbury
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.

Result
Accrington Stanley	Draw	Carlisle United
30.42% ( 0.05)	25.52% ( 0.25)	44.05% ( -0.3)

Both teams to score 54.18% (

-0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.49% (

-1.04)

49.51% (

1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.45% (

-0.94)

71.54% (

0.94)

Accrington Stanley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.84% (

-0.49)

30.16% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.69% (

-0.59)

66.31% (

0.59)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.58% (

-0.58)

22.42% (

0.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.06% (

-0.87)

55.94% (

0.87)

Score Analysis

Accrington Stanley 30.42%

Carlisle United 44.05%

Draw 25.51%

Accrington Stanley	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 30.42%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.51%	0-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 9.06% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.23% Total : 44.05%