Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.