Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 76.6%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s had a probability of 8.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.83%) and 1-0 (10.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.24%), while for a Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s win it was 0-1 (2.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s
76.6% ( -0.16)	15.22% ( 0.07)	8.17% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 44.57% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.31% (

-0.05)

39.68% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.96% (

-0.05)

62.03% (

0.05)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.37% (

-0.05)

8.62% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.24% (

-0.12)

29.75% (

0.11)

Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.77% (

0.17)

51.22% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.51% (

0.11)

85.49% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Derby County 76.59%

Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s 8.17%

Draw 15.22%

Derby County	Draw	Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s
2-0 @ 13.26% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.82% 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.25% ( 0) 4-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.8% Total : 76.59%	1-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.22%	0-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.17%