EFL Trophy | Group Stage

Oct 10, 2023 at 7pm UK

Meadow Lane Stadium

Notts County
1 - 2
Derby

Morias (78' pen.)
Gill (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sibley (20', 57')
Forsyth (45+2'), Cashin (66'), Collins (78'), Sibley (83')

Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Notts County and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Notts County

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Barrow 1-1 Notts County
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Cheltenham 1-1 Derby
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.76%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-2 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.

Result
Notts County	Draw	Derby County
40.9% ( -2.34)	23.37% ( 0.07)	35.73% ( 2.28)

Both teams to score 63.67% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.07% (

0.26)

37.93% (

-0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.81% (

0.27)

60.19% (

-0.27)

Notts County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.02% (

-0.89)

18.98% (

0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.48% (

-1.5)

50.52% (

1.51)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.58% (

1.33)

21.42% (

-1.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.58% (

2.01)

54.42% (

-2.01)

Score Analysis

Notts County 40.9%

Derby County 35.73%

Draw 23.36%

Notts County	Draw	Derby County
2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.32) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.18) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.17) Other @ 3.47% Total : 40.9%	1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.36%	1-2 @ 8.02% ( 0.31) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.31) 2-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.25) 1-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.18) 2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.73%