League One

League One | Gameweek 14

Oct 21, 2023 at 3pm UK

Montgomery Waters Meadow

Shrewsbury
1 - 0
Derby

Hourihane (56' og.)
Flanagan (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nelson (86'), Bradley (90+6')

Coverage of the League One clash between Shrewsbury Town and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Shrewsbury Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, October 14 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Notts County 1-2 Derby
Tuesday, October 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 20.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.6%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Derby County
20.44% ( 0.07)	24.4% ( 0.01)	55.15% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 48.17% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.21% (

0.01)

52.79% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.58% (

0.01)

74.41% (

-0.02)

Shrewsbury Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.51% (

0.08)

40.49% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.9% (

0.07)

77.09% (

-0.07)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.95% (

-0.03)

19.04% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.37% (

-0.04)

50.63% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Shrewsbury Town 20.44%

Derby County 55.14%

Draw 24.4%

Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.26% Total : 20.44%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.4%	0-1 @ 12.78% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 10.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.59% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.86% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.3% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.2% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 3% Total : 55.14%