FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round

Nov 5, 2023 at 2.45pm UK

Alexandra Stadium

Crewe
2 - 2
Derby

Baker-Richardson (41'), Nevitt (54')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mendez-Laing (89'), Hourihane (90+3')

Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Crewe Alexandra and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions

Last Game: Harrogate 0-1 Crewe
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 4-0 Northampton
Tuesday, October 31 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.

Result
Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Derby County
19.96% ( 0)	23.06% ( 0)	56.98% ( -0)

Both teams to score 51.45% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.95% (

0.01)

48.05% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.79% (

70.21% (

-0.01)

Crewe Alexandra Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.72% (

0.01)

38.28% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.96% (

0.01)

75.04% (

-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.37% (

16.63% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.54% (

46.46%

Score Analysis

Crewe Alexandra 19.96%

Derby County 56.98%

Draw 23.06%

Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.11% 2-1 @ 5.27% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.94% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.69% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.51% 3-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.51% Total : 19.96%	1-1 @ 10.96% 0-0 @ 6.37% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.06%	0-1 @ 11.42% 0-2 @ 10.24% 1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.13% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.88% 2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.75% 1-4 @ 2.64% 2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0) 0-5 @ 0.99% 1-5 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.06% Total : 56.98%