League One

League One | Gameweek 7

Oct 31, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium (Derby)

Derby
4 - 0
Northampton

Bird (14', 32'), Washington (22'), Mendez-Laing (49')
Washington (57')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Brough (2'), Odimayo (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Stevenage 3-1 Derby
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Northampton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol Rovers 2-1 Northampton
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.76%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 20.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Northampton Town
55.76% ( 0)	24.18% ( 0)	20.06% ( -0)

Both teams to score 48.27% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.63% (

-0.01)

52.37% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.95% (

-0)

74.05% (

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.34% (

-0)

18.66% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.02% (

-0)

49.98% (

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.34% (

-0.01)

40.66% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.75% (

-0.01)

77.25% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 55.76%

Northampton Town 20.06%

Draw 24.17%

Derby County	Draw	Northampton Town
1-0 @ 12.73% 2-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.39% 4-0 @ 2.51% 3-2 @ 2.42% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 55.76%	1-1 @ 11.46% 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.17%	0-1 @ 6.83% 1-2 @ 5.16% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.07% 1-3 @ 1.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.24% Total : 20.06%